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UTSA at UTEP: Inside the numbers

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Certain numbers can tell a story, a few we list are pretty telling on what could happen Saturday in the Sun Bowl.

Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Stats can lie, but these ones tell a small story of each UTSA's and UTEP's seasons so far.

These could become factors in a mark in the win or loss column come Saturday night.

6.1----Is the yard per carry average UTSA running back Jarveon Williams has, the UTEP defense is allowing the exact same 6.1 yards per carry average. Williams is also averaging 6.2 yards on his big play opportunities.

36----This is how many rushing first downs UTSA has on the year, with 17 coming from Jarveon Williams and 14 of those coming on first and second down plays.  The kid is becoming a top back in the C-USA, and should be a concern to the UTEP defensive game plan, he also has 13 runs of 10 yards or more this season.

15.2----Is how many yards per completion UTSA has allowed this year, Ryan Metz has averaged 10.3 yards per completion in the last six quarters for UTEP.

432----The Number of yards Ryan Metz has passed for on first and second down situations so far this year.  If UTEP can open up the pass early, things can happen for the UTEP offense on any given Saturday.

22.5%---Is the combined target rate for UTSA's top two pass catchers in slot receiver Aaron Grubb, and tight end David Morgan.  UTEP has to key in on both of Blake Bogenschutz's main targets in the UTSA passing game, and tackle well against both of them.

-8---Marks UTSA's turnover margin this season. UTEP is at -3, turnovers could be a huge factor this week and could decide the game if its close in the second half.  UTSA has not recorded an interception on defense so far this year.

63.4%---Is the average run rate opposing offenses have ran against UTSA on standard downs, the national average is 59.7%.  UTSA should be prepared for the run, but do the Miners throw a curveball here?

21.2%----As successful as UTSA's run game has been the past two weeks, their stuff rate on run plays is at 21.2% percent, which ranks 87th in nation. UTEP's defense has a 18% stuff rate on the year.

25.5%---Now here is UTEP's stuff rate on their run plays, which was greatly increased by last week's struggle in the run game.  Both teams will look to get the run going, so stuffing runs could be a recipe of success for either defense. UTSA's defense has a 16.8% stuff rate.

37%----This stat marks UTSA's third down conversion percentage on offense. Getting teams in third and long is always the UTEP defensive goal, but it should be more so in this one.

40%---To back up the last stat, this is Blake Bogenschutz's completion percentage in third and ten or longer situations this season in where he has only converted one first down, and has thrown one interception.

2.8%---Is UTEP's sack rate on passing downs, UTEP has only allowed two sacks all season.

5.7%---This is UTSA's sack rate on passing downs.  When Bogenschutz has a clean pocket he can be a very effective passer, making him rush through his progressions is key in not allowing him time to sling the rock all over the yard.

9.3----Is the average penalties per game UTSA is currently averaging on the year. If UTEP can play cleanly, they actually have a shot in turning this into an advantage if UTSA happens to self-destruct at any point in the game.

6.3---That's the yard per play average UTSA is allowing this year, UTEP's offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play.  The Miners cannot allow UTSA to play in their backfield to bring this clip at a nasty looking advantage for the Roadrunners.

3.5%---Is UTSA's defensive line havoc rate. This goes with the yard per play deal, if UTSA's defensive line is eating, it could be a long day for the UTEP offense.

36.8%---Marks UTSA's touchback rate on kickoffs.  Its time for Autrey Golden to tie this record man.

90%---This is UTSA's red-zone defensive scoring percentage.  For UTEP, six is better than three in this regard.