C-USA Play Preview

To say C-USA is up for grabs this year is a huge understatement. A number of teams have experienced coaching changes and are trying to find themselves as the season goes on. A number of teams were thought to be good but are underachieving, and a number of teams were thought to be bad and are overachieving. I like to think that I usually have a good idea of who the best teams in the conference are, but that's not the case this year. Your guess is as good as mine, and I encourage you to give me your predictions for C-USA in the comments section.

But this wouldn't be a PaydirtRenzo post without me throwing some statistics out first. Below are some of the team stats as we reach the end of non-conference play:

	Team PPG
RANK	TEAM	PPG
1	Houston	79.8
2	ECU	79.2
3	UAB	76.7
4	Memphis	74.8
5	So Miss	73
6	UCF	70.9
7	Marshall	69.1
8	Tulsa	67.1
8	Tulane	67.1
10	SMU	65.5
11	UTEP	63.1
12	Rice	58.2

	Team 3P%
RANK	TEAM	3P%
1	Houston	0.396
2	UCF	0.392
3	SMU	0.39
4	So Miss	0.367
5	UTEP	0.356
6	UAB	0.348
7	Memphis	0.347
8	Tulane	0.336
9	Tulsa	0.328
10	Rice	0.321
11	Marshall	0.319
12	ECU	0.318

RPG
RANK	TEAM	RPG
1	Houston	41.5
2	Marshall	41.3
3	ECU	39
4	UAB	38.2
5	Tulane	37
5	Tulsa	37
7	Memphis	35.6
8	UCF	35.4
9	So Miss	35.1
10	SMU	34.3
11	UTEP	29.8
12	Rice	26.8

AST/TO
RANK	TEAM	AST/TO
1	ECU	1.43
2	Houston	1.15
3	Memphis	1.07
4	UAB	1.06
5	UCF	1.05
6	UTEP	0.96
7	Tulane	0.88
8	So Miss	0.87
9	Marshall	0.86
10	Rice	0.82
11	SMU	0.78
12	Tulsa	0.64

	Scoring Def	DPPG
1	Tulane	56.7
2	So Miss	57.9
3	SMU	60.3
4	UCF	63.6
5	UTEP	63.8
6	Tulsa	64.5
7	Memphis	66.2
8	Houston	67.1
9	Rice	67.7
10	ECU	68
11	Marshall	70.3
12	UAB	73.3

	ATTENDANCE
1	Memphis	16108
2	UTEP	8310
3	Marshall	5445
4	Tulsa	4444
5	ECU	4353
6	UCF	4264
7	So Miss	4169
8	Houston	3884
9	UAB	3541
10	SMU	3161
11	Tulane	1777
12	Rice	1455

And here are the individual stat leaders in selected categories:

	Minutes per game
Rank	Player	School	MPG
1	DeAndre Kane	MAR	38.2
2	Julian Washburn	UTEP	36.3
3	Nick Russell	SMU	35.8
4	Keith Clanton	UCF	35.3
4	Tamir Jackson	RICE	35.3
6	Ricky Tarrant	TULANE	35.1
7	Josh Davis	TULANE	34.7
7	Ryan Manuel	SMU	34.7
7	Jacques Streeter	UTEP	34.7
10	Isaiah Sykes	UCF	34.4

	Points per game
Rank	Player	School	PPG
1	Josh Davis	TULANE	18.1
2	Maurice Kemp	ECU	18
3	Tamir Jackson	RICE	17.5
4	TaShawn Thomas	UH	17.4
4	Joseph Young	UH	17.4
6	Keith Clanton	UCF	17.1
7	DeAndre Kane	MAR	15
8	Elijah Pittman	MAR	14.9
8	Jordan Swing	UAB	14.9
8	Isaiah Sykes	UCF	14.9

	Rebounds per game
Rank	Player	School	RPG
1	Josh Davis	TULANE	10.3
2	Keith Clanton	UCF	9.9
2	TaShawn Thomas	UH	9.9
4	Robert Sampson	ECU	9.1
4	Nigel Spikes	MAR	9.1
6	Dennis Tinnon	MAR	9
7	Maurice Kemp	ECU	8.7
8	Jalen Jones	SMU	8.3
9	Rod Rucker	UAB	7.4
10	Jonathan Mills	USM	6.9

	Assists per game
Rank	Player	School	APG
1	DeAndre Kane	MAR	8.5
2	Neil Watson	USM	5.2
3	Isaiah Sykes	UCF	5
4	Miguel Paul	ECU	4.9
5	Jacques Streeter	UTEP	4.8
6	Joe Jackson	MEM	4.6
7	Terence Jones	UAB	4.4
8	Nick Russell	SMU	4.2
9	J.J. Thompson	UH	3.8
10	Chris Crawford	MEM	3

	3-point % *
Rank	Player	School	3P%
1	Konner Tucker	UTEP	0.571
2	Kasey Wilson	UCF	0.553
3	Ben Cherry	TULANE	0.52
4	Joe Jackson	MEM	0.5
4	Matt Williams	UCF	0.5
6	Joseph Young	UH	0.477
7	Jordan Swing	UAB	0.471
8	Daiquan Walker	UCF	0.467
9	Brian Bernardi	SMU	0.464
10	D.J. Stephens	MEM	0.462

(*minimum 15 attempts)

Now, on to my picks:

1. Memphis Tigers

When the conference race figures to be this close, go with the team with the best home-court advantage and the deepest talent. This is not a Calipari-era loaded Tigers team in terms of talent, but Adonis Thomas and Joe Jackson are among the best players in C-USA this year. The Tigers have experience and depth at every position. It's hard to believe Joe Jackson, Chris Crawford, Tarik Black, and Antonio Barton are juniors already.

2. Southern Miss Golden Eagles

The Golden Eagles are severely undersized, but then again that could've been said about them last year. USM returns just about everyone and despite having a new coach, it's hard to see this veteran group not contending and throwing their weight around a conference of relatively new faces. The Eagles are about as deep as you can get in C-USA, having 5 juniors (Watson, Brooks, Boardingham, Craig, and Jenkins) and 3 seniors (Mills, McGill, Davis) that can contribute significant minutes. Eustachy may have left, but the Eagles have kept his scrappy, defensive-minded attitude.

3. UTEP Miners

This might be partially wishful thinking as the Miners still have one of the youngest teams in the league and rank towards the bottom of C-USA in rebounding and points per game. But the Miners are led by arguably the best coach in the league (unless we defer to Larry Brown's titles) and have faced easily the toughest non-conference schedule. They get Memphis at home towards the end of the year. By then, the team will have figured out their identity and X-factor McKenzie Moore should be in top notch form as well.

4. Houston Cougars

Like the Miners, the Cougars are another very young team that is beginning to cultivate depth. Danuel House and Jherrod Stiggers have proven they can make a difference as freshmen. J.J. Thompson, Joseph Young, and TaShawn Thomas are only sophomores. The Cougars have some size coming off the bench in the form of freshmen Valentine Izundu and rare senior Leon Gibson. Say what you will about their schedule, this team leads C-USA in points per game, 3-point percentage, rebounds per game, and is second in assist-turnover ratio.

5. UCF Knights

Had Jordan remained, I might want to put the Knights higher in these projections. As it stands, the Knights still have a solid, experienced core of Clanton, Sykes, Spurlock, and Newell. Freshmen Matt Williams and Daiquan Walker are important weapons for their ability to knock down 3's, stretching the UCF offense out. Clanton and Spurlock are contenders for the best 1-2 punch inside for any C-USA team and its to their credit, mostly, that the Knights lead the league in field goal percentage.

6. SMU Mustangs

Larry Brown has himself a talented starting five. The problem is there's not much more beyond that. The Mustangs are the only team in C-USA who have five guys average 30 or more minutes per game. Aside from senior guard London Giles's 17 per game, nobody else on the roster plays for more than 10 minutes per game. That has the potential to wear the Ponies down. Jalen Jones is slowly turning into a stud for the Mustangs, improving his RPG average by 5 to 8.3 and leading SMU in scoring. Nick Russell and Ryan Manuel provide SMU with solid guard play.

7. East Carolina Pirates

My brain is telling me that this is too high a projection for the Pirates, but my gut was actually telling me to put them higher and making them my darkhorse. Why? Like So Miss and UCF, this is a pretty experienced team with seniors Miguel Paul, Maurice Kemp, Corvonn Gaines and juniors Robert Sampson, Akeem Richmond, and Ty Armstrong. The Pirates have outstanding bigs, getting almost 20 rebounds and 30 points per game from the combo of Kemp and Sampson. Many of Miguel Paul's assists go to feeding these two guys and Armstrong inside.

8. Tulane Green Wave

The Wave was recently ranked 1st in Anthony's Power Rankings and I'd have to agree with him. Heck, I even think Tulane beats UTEP in the C-USA opener. Tulane has a similar problem to SMU's though. Once you get past the starters, there's not much there. I think Tulane starts off conference play strong before sliding down the standings. SMU has 5 really good starters. Tulane has 4 and a slightly, slightly better supporting cast in my estimation. Josh Davis is putting up very manly numbers as he leads the league in points and rebounds per game. He might have the inside track for player of the year. Tarrant, Callahan, and Timmons round out Tulane four horsemen. Tulane can compete if those guys stay healthy and they get enough good play from the bench.

9. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Tulsa is the one team I will readily admit to know very little about still. I know who their players are, but I have not seen one Tulsa game this year. Sophomre forward Rashad Smith looked to be a key player early on, but he went out with an injury and may or may not be back for early C-USA play. I was fully expecting returning senior guard Scottie Haralson to lead the team in scoring, but instead it's been freshmen guard James Woodard. The Hurricane rank near the middle of the pack in almost every statistical category and shuffle lineups often in Manning's first year.

10. Marshall Thundering Herd

I reallly can't believe I'm putting the Herd this low, but with their best (and arguably the league's best) player out and horrific losses to Delaware State at home and to Ohio by 37, it's hard to see them living up to the preseason hype even with DeAndre Kane back. On paper, the Herd were a contender. They had one of the league's best guards and solid rebounding from players like Spikes and Tinnon. The scoring attack is balanced. Yet Tom Herrion's crew has looked pretty dismal heading into conference play, losing 3 in a row and 5 of their last 7. If they can somehow get their act together, they can still cause major problems for any team in C-USA.

11. UAB Blazers

This seems very low for a team that usually is very respectable, but their defensive play has not been very impressive thus far. The Blazers are allowing 73.3 points per game and their most impressive performances thus far have been in blowout wins against South Alabama and Northeastern. The Blazers do have experience, with 6 juniors contributing significant minutes and a senior guard leading them in Terence Jones. Jordan Swing remains one of the best players in C-USA. Outside of 6'10 Fahro Alihodzic and 6'2 guard Jones, most of UAB's contributors are 6'4-6'6 guards and swingmen. The Blazers will win some games and look good doing so. They will also lose games that make them look awful.

12. Rice Owls

2012-2013 is a sad story for the Owls, considering they were getting ready to be a darkhorse contender. You think Ben Braun isn't looking at a lackluster season so far by C-USA teams and thinking, "Man, if only 6 of my best players hadn't transferred..." Kazemi left to Oregon. Ennis left to Villanova. Oraby left to USC. Chadwick left to Valpo. Reischel left to Rhode Island. Ibrahim went pro in Lebanon. And just like that Rice's season was over before it started. The Owls will be inexperienced and small. Their senior 6'3 combo guard, Tamir Jackson, leads them in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Their only wins have come against Houston Baptist, Chicago State, and St. Edwards and they rank towards the bottom in almost every statistical category.

1st Team ALL CONFERENCE-USA
JR Josh Davis, Tulane
SR Keith Clanton, UCF
SR Tamir Jackson, Rice
SO, TaShawn Thomas, UH
JR, DeAndre Kane, MAR

2nd Team ALL CONFERENCE-USA
JR Joe Jackson, Memphis
SR Maurice Kemp, ECU
JR Jordan Swing, UAB
SO Ricky Tarrant, Tulane
JR Nick Russell, SMU

3rd Team ALL CONFERENCE-USA
JR Isaiah Sykes, UCF
SO Jalen Jones, SMU
SO Julian Washburn, UTEP
SO Adonis Thomas, Memphis
SO Joseph Young, Houston

So there are my picks. I'll probably regret projecting SMU and ECU so high while having UAB and Marshall so low, but it's not fun if you don't take some chances. Don't forget to leave your picks in the comments.

Go Miners.