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The Order of Things: C-USA Tournament Seeding Scenarios

With the 2011 C-USA Tournament now only a week away, it's finally time to take an extended look at the potential seeding scenarios.  Seeding matters.  For those of you who don't know, the top 4 teams in the league standings received a first round bye (link to C-USA tiebreaker rules).  

The C-USA Championship

The Contenders:  UAB*, UTEP, Tulsa

UAB has already clinched a share of the C-USA Championship with their win last night against Southern Miss.  If UAB wins their season ending clash at home against ECU, the Blazers have deservedly won the C-USA Regular Season Championship outright.  If UAB loses, which you know isn't completely out of the question considering this year in the C-USA, both UTEP and Tulsa will have a chance to earn a share of the title.  UTEP would have to beat SMU and Tulsa would have to beat Southern Miss.  So, there could be an outright champion, a two way split or a three team tie for first.

 

The One Seed

Star-divide

The Contenders:  UAB Blazers, Tulsa Golden Hurricane

While UTEP can earn a share of the C-USA Championship, the Miners cannot earn the #1 seed.  If UAB and UTEP end the season tied at 11-5, UAB would have the tiebeaker advantage with the head-to-head win.  If There is a three way tie, the conference looks at the three teams combined records against each other.   UAB is 1-1 against UTEP and Tulsa.  Tulsa is 2-1 against the others.  UTEP is 1-2 against them.  Which means if...

  • UAB Wins:  They win the C-USA Title and the #1 seed
  • UAB loses and only Tulsa Wins:  Shared title and Tulsa gets the #1 seed (head-to-head); UAB would be the #2 seed
  • UAB loses and only UTEP wins:  Shared title and UAB gets the #1 seed (head-to-head), UTEP gets the #2 seed
  • UAB loses and UTEP and Tulsa also win:  Tulsa gets the #1 seed, UAB gets the #2 seed, UTEP gets the #3 seed.  

Can UTEP do any worse than the #3 Seed?

Yes.  If UTEP loses, the Miners could easily find themselves in a two way, three way, or four way tie for second place in the C-USA standings.  

Scenario #1, The Four Way Tie for Second:  UTEP loses, USM beats Tulsa, and Memphis Beats Tulane  
If UTEP loses and Southern Miss. beats Tulsa and Memphis beats Tulane, you would be looking at a four way tie for second place.  We would compare the teams records to each other, so UTEP would be 2-2 against Memphis, Tulsa, and USM.   Tulsa would be 2-2 as well.  USM would be 2-2.  Memphis would be 2-2.  Can you believe that? 

If that happens, the next tiebreaker would be to compare each squad's record against the team atop the standings (UAB).  So, Memphis would be 2-0, Tulsa would be 1-0, USM would be 1-1, and UTEP would be 0-1. The result would be that Memphis gets the 2 seed, Tulsa gets the 3, USM gets the 4, and UTEP gets the 5 seed.

Again, for this to happen, UTEP and Tulsa would have to lose and Memphis would have to win against Tulane.  


Scenario #2, The Three Way Tie For 2nd:  UTEP Loses, Tulsa Loses, and Memphis Loses
This one gets tricky because there would be a three way tie for second place between UTEP, Southern Miss. and Tulsa.  UTEP is 1-2 against the field.  USM would be 2-0 against the field. and Tulsa would be 1-2 against the field. USM would get the #2 seed with the 2-0 record.  UTEP and TU would look to their records against UAB.  Since TU beat the Blazers, they would get the #3 seed.  UTEP would be #4.  This is by far the best case scenario for Southern Miss.

Scenario #3:  UTEP loses, Tulsa and Memphis Win
If UTEP loses, and Tulsa and Memphis both win, UTEP would finish tied with Memphis for third place.  With the head-to-head win, UTEP gets the #3 seed.  Easy.  

So, here I've given the best and the worst case scenarios for UTEP heading into Saturday.  I think it's only fitting that the Miners could still feasibly win a share of the title or not even get a first round bye.  



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Comments

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Funny thing about scenario #1

is I was just talking to my pops about it this morning and I came to the conclusion we would be totally screwed.

I’m already assuming UAB handles ECU at home….so moving on…

I honestly wouldnt mind Tulsa beating USM because once that happens it becomes easy…we’re pretty much locked in 3rd place no matter what…I think that’s the easiest way to break it down.

IMO 2 and 3 seed doesnt make as much of a difference in the long run because that means UAB, Memphis and USM and heck even UCF (9 seed) are all on the same side of the bracket. Sux for them.

This is pretty much what i’m hoping for, but this has been a crazy season, who knows what the hell happens.

by DFWMiner on Mar 3, 2011 11:30 AM MST reply actions  

And I thought chemistry was hard ...

You’ve certainly done your homework. I hope there isn’t some crazy scenario deep in the C-USA regulations that involves a coin toss or cutting a deck of cards. Keep up the good work.
c.

by cstanley on Mar 3, 2011 11:40 AM MST reply actions  

or perhaps ...

pinning the tail on a certain jack@ss ref ….
my apologies to anyone I may have just offended.

by cstanley on Mar 3, 2011 2:52 PM MST up reply actions  

Good Job A-Mac

I was pulling for a 2 to 3 seed also, because of what DFW was talking about. It’s be nice to not have to worry about Memphis, UAB, and Southern Miss, until the finals.

by asalom on Mar 3, 2011 12:52 PM MST reply actions  

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