Conference USA Bubble Watch
by asalom on Jan 25, 2011 2:05 PM MST
in UTEP Miners Basketball
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With February quickly approaching, and the midway point of the conference season nearly here, its time to take a look at the post season possibilities for C-USA teams. Its been a wild start to conference play with virtually everybody beating up on everybody. As it stands there are 6 Conference USA teams in the top 100 RPI so we'll go ahead and check out the resumes of those six teams.
1.) Memphis Tigers (15-4, 4-1) RPI: 44, SOS: 74, Last 10: 7-3, Pomeroy: 97, Sagarin: 69
The Tigers probably have the best chance of any C-USA team to reach the NCAA tournament with an at-large bid. More than anything, that is due to their reputation on the national scene. They are currently 4-3 vs. the RPI top 100, and 1-3 vs. the top 50. The Tigers still have plenty of work to be done, but they've also got plenty of opportunities. There are still 7 opponents in the top 100 left on their schedule. If they end up with 9+ wins vs. the top 100 they've got a shot.
Good Wins: Miami (FL), Marshall, at Southern Miss, at UAB
Bad Losses: at SMU
2.) UAB Blazers (13-5, 3-2) RPI: 52, SOS: 97, Last 10: 7-3, Pomeroy: 68, Sagarin: 66
The Blazers are in desperate need of every big win that they can get. They definitely did not do themselves any favors losing by 16 at Tulsa. The Blazers are currently 3-3 vs. the top 100 RPI, and 0-3 vs. the top 50, with 7 top 100 games left on their schedule. In my opinion, the Blazers will need at least six of those seven to have a legitimate shot at an at large bid.
Good Wins: Kent St., VCU, UTEP.
Bad Losses: at Arizona St., at Tulsa
3.) UTEP Miners (16-4, 4-1) RPI: 64, SOS: 142, Last 10: 8-2, Pomeroy: 59, Sagarin: 64
The Miners have really put themselves in a tough spot. Yes they're 16-4, and are leading the conference, but their resume isn't so strong. The Miners have a couple bad losses early in the season to Pacific, and on a neutral floor to Georgia Tech. Those don't help at all, and their SOS surely doesn't either. The Miners are 1-2 vs. the RPI top 100, and 0-1 vs. the top 50. The Miners lone top 100 win may soon disappear if Michigan (91) continues to slide. The Miners only have 4 top 100 games left, and they definitely need them all.
Good Wins: Michigan (neutral floor)
Bad Losses: Pacific, Georgia Tech (neutral floor)
4.) UCF Knights (14-4, 1-4) RPI: 65, SOS: 106, Last 10: 6-4, Pomeroy: 75, Sagarin: 65
The Knights were a virtual lock for an at large coming into conference at 13-0, no. 18 in the nation. Boy have things changed. After surviving their first conference game against Marshall, UCF has dropped four straight, leaving the NCAA tournament hopes on life support. The Knights are 4-1 vs. the RPI top 100, and 2-0 vs. the top 50. If they can somehow put a nice winning streak together, their 4 losses may be written off as a mere fluke, but with Memphis, UAB, and UTEP in their next three they may be getting written off altogether. The Knights still have 7 top 100 games so they'll have their chance.
Good Wins: Florida (neutral court), Miami (FL) (neutral court), Princeton, Marshall
Bad Losses: at Houston, ECU, Rice
5.) Marshall Thundering Herd (13-6, 1-3) RPI: 75, SOS: 89, Last 10: 6-4, Pomeroy: 92, Sagarin: 91
The Herd had just played themselves into contention last week after dropping rival West Virginia on a neutral court. They followed that up with a home loss at the hands of ECU. Marshall is currently 3-4 vs. the RPI top 100, and 1-2 vs. the top 50. The Herd have 6 games vs. the top 100 left on their schedule, but likely don't have much of an at large shot. Their only chance of an at large is probably winning out until the conference championship. Other than that, its win the conference tourney or NIT.
Good Wins: James Madison, Southern Miss, West Virginia (neutral court)
Bad Losses: Chattanooga, ECU.
6.) Southern Miss Golden Eagels (14-5, 3-3) RPI: 76, SOS: 150, Last 10: 6-4, Pomeroy: 93, Sagarin: 81
The Golden Eagles came into conference at 11-2 with a nice win at CAL on their resume. Since then they've gone 3-3 and just can't get into any kind of rhythm. The Golden Eagles are 2-4 vs. the RPI top 100, and 0-1 vs. the top 50. They still have 6 games vs. the RPI top 100, but will likely need to win the conference tournament to reach the big dance.
Final Outlook:
Memphis and UTEP make the NCAA tournament
UAB, UCF, Marshall, and Southern Miss make the NIT
The truth is that at this point only three teams seem to have a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament. Those three would be Memphis, UAB, and UTEP. UCF could still have the strongest resume if they can string some wins together, but at this point they are out. Memphis has the national media on its side, and UTEP has the computers on its side. Both of those are good starting points, but don't forget that when you are a mid-major nothing is given to you. Memphis may get a BIT of a free pass, but UAB and UTEP need to win a lot of games to be given serious consideration. At this point C-USA is a two bid league, and if we keep beating up on each other it may turn into a one bid league.
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Good stuff
Reading this, I become more and more of the belief that the Bracketologists might be right about C-USA being a one bid league. The C-USA needs UCF to start winning again and it needs for the top of the league to survive the SMU, Houston, and ECU landmines.
Axes Up. Miner Rush - For UTEP Miners Fans
definitely
I actually asked randy what he thought about c-usa teams and the ncaa tournament on the ep times chat. He says c-usa doesn’t get the credit it deserves, and he thinks the regular season and tourney champs will make the ncaa tourney.
This is why I don't like the RPI. Sure, it does a good job accounting for SOS and wins and losses, but it does not take into account how those wins and losses were obtained.
I think the best indicator of how good a team is the Pomeroy ratings, and I wish the NCAA used a system like this instead. They take home court, defense, offense, point spread, sos, and wins and losses. That is why UTEP is 59 and Memphis is 97. UTEP has lost some games they should have won, but for the most part against semi-quality opponents. Memphis on the other hand has lost games it could have won and also has NARROWLY escaped with a win from some very low-quality opponents. The Pomeroy ratings really do a good job of incorporating that type of thing, and IMO give the best representation of the strength of a team.
I'm not in the room with the selection committee
but i’m sure the pomeroy and sagarin ratings are at the very least mentioned. A team’s resume is made up of a hundred different things, and all those computers ratings have to have some kind of effect….
I think UTEP has one more thing going for them also if they finish out strong. There are 1st and 2nd round games in Tucson. Money is obviously a huge factor. The NCAA has always made an effort to send teams fairly close to home, more than anything, to allow fans to make the trip. Let’s say UTEP is one of the last few teams in/out, they may get the nod as a 12 or 13 seed in Tucson over another team who may not generate much revenue. (Not a fact, just my opinion)
Another thing UTEP needs
A few teams on UTEP’s schedule are fairly close to breaking the RPI top 100. Namely, Air Force (106), and Tulsa (112). We desperately need those two to wins some games and crack that top 100. That will give us a couple extra much needed good wins. ECU is another that has made a huge push as of late. The Pirates are currently 114 in the RPI. That would give us another shot at a top 100 RPI team. And Michigan, PLEASE stop losing. The Wolverines are at 91 and at this pace figure to be out of the top 100 by next week. That’s bad news for the Miners.
This pretty much goes along everything i've...
been saying…we’re in a tough spot because there isn’t too many chances for us to get quality wins down the road and too many chances for a bad loss.
I’ve done the math and best case scenario see us going 27-7 IF we happen to slip in the CUSA tourney final. Of course, this all moot if we win the tourney, but anyways…my question is…Are a large amount of wins enough for a bid when there aren’t many quality wins?
Well 27-7 should be enough
But you never know. One point I’d like to make is that Michigan is 80 in ESPN’s RPI, and Air Force has made it into the top 100 at no. 96. Those help A LITTLE. ECU is actually at 106, and Tulsa is at 113 so those may be chances for top 100 wins also. Bottom line is we just need to keep winning. That’s all we can do. We have no control over what the committee decides, but we do have control over the resume that they look at. There are 11 conference games left, and possibly 3 tourney games. We’ve got a chance to get to 30 wins and shut everyone up, but that’s probably not likely. However, a 28-6 finish should definitely get us in, as SHOULD 27-7. Again, just take care of business, the rest will take care of itself.
Yeah it would
It would be a first here at UTEP. 30 wins would have to put us somewhere in the top 15 in the country right? Maybe something like a 5 or 6 seed?
automatic bid
I dont even know why were so worried really do you think we would lose the c-usa tourney at the Don Haskins Center?
I love the confidence EJ
But you know nothing is a given. I’d rather build a strong resume and not leave it up to winning the C-USA tourney, but I’ll take a bid either way.
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