Warning: Do not be misled by rankings and statistics. Pay even less attention to those UNM fans who come to UTEP boards and proclaim that UTEP will blow the Lobos out. Think of some of our UTEP fans going to their boards, and what they would say.
I will be giving you stats to look at, but you must keep the stats in their proper perspective. UNM has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Sagarin Ratings for the teams UNM has played look like this:
#5 Oregon
#14 Utah
#29 TT
#101 UNLV
Average rank of their 4 teams played=#37
Here's UTEP's:
#228 Ark PB
#63 Houston
#163 NMSU
#118 Memphis
Average rank of our teams played= #143
If you look at Sagarin's Predictor (take the difference between the two numbers to determine points difference in final score. Add three points for Home Field Advantage.) you will see just how close this game could easily be. UTEP's predictor is 61.46. UNM's is 57.52. So, there is a 4 point advantage for UTEP, minus the 3 points for UNM's HFA. Predicted difference in score= 1 point.
The odds makers have been way off on their predictions. So don't pay much attention to them. There was no line against APB. Against Houston the closing line was 21 points. UTEP lost by 30. They picked UTEP to beat NMSU by 15. UTEP won by 32. Against Memphis they predicted UTEP would win by 11.5 points, and UTEP won by 3. They were even worse when they handicapped the UNM games. Against Oregon they missed by 36 points. They were off by 10 in the TT spread. They missed the spread by 20 against Utah. Finally, the picked UNLV to win by 10.5. They won by 35.
Here's some stats(remember, these are only numbers. What you do with them is up to you):
| UTEP UNM Total Offense 422 yds/gm 265 yds/gm Rushing 175 yds/gm 76 yds/gm Passing 253 yds/gm 217 yds/gm Scoring Defense 21.75 points/gm 56.25 points/gm UNM Individual Player Stats; Rushing GP Att Gain Loss Net Avg TD Long Avg/G DENNIS, Demond 4 37 162 19 143 3.9 0 20 35.8 AUSTIN, Tarean 4 30 131 51 80 2.7 0 14 20.0 HERNANDEZ, Chris 4 0 45 0 45 0.0 1 0 11.2 CARRIER, Kasey 3 22 44 10 34 1.5 0 6 11.3 WRIGHT, James 4 17 33 13 20 1.2 0 8 5.0 PASSING GP Effic Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yards TD Long Avg/G HOLBROOK, B.R. 2 93.7 41-74-4 55.4 393 1 57 196.5 AUSTIN, Tarean 4 86.9 36-74-3 48.6 330 2 48 82.5 GRUNER, Brad 2 72.1 3-8-0 37.5 33 0 29 16.5 RECEIVING GP No. Yards Avg TD Long Avg/G KIRK, Ty 4 18 196 10.9 0 57 49.0 WILLIAMS, Bryant 4 14 143 10.2 2 48 35.8 HERNANDEZ, Chris 4 14 119 8.5 0 22 29.8 REED, Lucas 4 9 102 11.3 1 33 25.5 DENNIS, Demond 4 9 57 6.3 0 29 14.2 WRIGHT, James 4 4 37 9.2 0 16 9.2 Tackles Sacks Pass Defense Fumbles Blkd DEFENSIVE LEADERS GP Solo Ast Total TFL-Yds No-Yds Int-Yds BU PD Qbh Rcv-Yds FF Kick Saf 28 FORREST, Bubba 4 17 18 35 0.5 - 1 . . 1 1 . . . . . 46 MERRITT, Spencer 4 14 7 21 2.5 - 12 . . 4 4 . . . . . 34 BUTLER, A.J. 3 8 10 18 . . . . . . 2 - 27 . . . 58 MESSINA, Carmen 4 10 7 17 1.0 - 1 . . . . . . 1 . . 29 MILLS, DeShawn 4 11 6 17 . . . . . . . . . . 45 ANYAIBE, Terel 4 7 9 16 0.5 - 1 . . . . . . 1 . . 48 LATCHISON, Jaymar 4 7 9 16 0.5 - 2 0.5 - 2 . . . . . . 1 . 39 STONER, Joe 4 6 9 15 . . 1 - 28 1 2 . 1 - 3 1 . . 17 YOUNG, Freddy 4 5 9 14 . . . . . . . . . . 93 GARDNER, Peter 4 5 7 12 2.0 - 5 1.0 - 4 . . . . . . . . 6 HOOKS, Anthony 4 9 3 12 1.0 - 1 . . 1 1 . . 1 . . 2 MCPHEARSON, Emmanuel 4 7 5 12 . . . . . . . . . . 59 JOHANNEMANN, Seth 4 7 4 11 1.0 - 1 . . 1 1 . . . . . 88 RAINEY, Johnathan 4 5 6 11 2.0 - 15 1.0 - 10 . . . 1 1 - 7 1 . . 92 ELLIS, Reggie 4 . 11 11 1.0 - 3 0.5 - 2 . . . . . . . . 51 NEELY, Cody 4 6 3 9 . . . . . . . . . . 41 BOLLEMA, Dallas 4 4 5 9 |
So, ignore the stats. Ignore the rankings. Pay absolutely no attention to the records of the two teams so far, this season. Most of all, pay no attention to the book makers. Remember that this is the second oldest UTEP rivalry. UNM has a big lead in the history of the games played. The Lobos are at home, and are desperately looking for a win. No one has any idea, any better than you, or your Ouija board about how this one will turn out.
I checked with an on-line Ouija board, and it told me that UTEP would win. I wanted to double check, so I asked if UNM would win, and it said yes. Even Ouija is unsure of the outcome.
Here's my prediction. It is based on my gut feeling, and not much more. UTEP 28 UNM 17
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